In this economy?!

The Market Forces Shaping Trends in Crypto Crime

Jackie Burns Koven | Eric Jardine

During the course of 2022, the underground cryptocurrency economy has been buffeted by bear market conditions, increased OFAC sanctioning activity, and high-profile law enforcement interventions. For example, top money laundering services and cashout points for illicit funds have been dismantled or designated, deposits to fraud shops dropped by $1.5 billion, and ransom payments declined as much as 40% while slumping BTC prices wiped out prior earnings. However, despite these headwinds, profits from cryptocurrency thefts had record earnings. So how do these market forces impact crime going forward? What kind of squeeze does this put on the cost of doing business including the price of eggs inputs like hacking tools and services? This talk first examines trends in crime and profitability – including examples of specific vendors, threat actors, and gangs who’ve adjusted business models–  possible explanations for the drivers of the on-chain trends, and then postulates how crypto crime may further adapt to maximize profits when the crypto boom goes bust.